3 Stocks Sampler

Hi,

Today I’ve published a video where I want to start a new tradition like David Gardner from Rule Breaking Investing Podca

I’ve selected 3 stocks and recheck them in 1,2,3 years

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Back Tests

In this video I show some back tests I run

6 Conclusions from Motely Fool podcast

I really enjoyed listening to David Gardner talking about conclusions from his history of stock picking.
I especially liked conclusion No. 2: “understand your real biggest losers”.
Excerpt from the podcast:

If you do the math, my real biggest loser I haven’t even mentioned yet. If you imagine $1,000 or $10,000 being put in each of these… Let’s just go with $10,000. Well, if it loses 90%, how much are you left with? The answer is you’re left with about $1,000. From $10,000 you’re down to $1,000. You lost $9,000.

But the real biggest loser for you, if you’re an investor and if you’ve been acting over the long term, I bet you realize that it’s not the bad-performing stocks. It’s the megawinners that you sold too early. It’s that you didn’t stick with big winners and I’m going to share the math with you to make it obvious in a second.

Because my real biggest loser was a company called ARM Holdings. The ticker symbol was ARMH. This is a British-based company that did R&D for the chip industry, so a lot of semiconductor companies would use their research in order to design better, faster, cheaper chips. ARM Holdings, history will show, I recommended in October of 2003, so 15 years ago, this month, at $5. I then re-recommended it two months later when it had crossed $6. That was in December of 2003.

Well, fast forward to June of 2009. So almost six years later the stock was languishing. It was at a dividend-adjusted closing price when I sold it, of $5.38. So I paid $5 for it six years before. I then added some at $6 and I’m sitting there. The year 2009 was not a good time. I was probably really sad at the time about how badly the stock market had done. I looked at ARM Holdings, a double recommendation for me, and it was at $5.38 and I said to all my Stock Advisor followers, listeners, and members to sell. We’re out.

Here’s why ARM Holdings is my real biggest loser. Because when the company finally got bought out in September of 2016 the share price that day was at $67.77. So two different positions from $5 and $6 would both have been 11-plus baggers. And if you do the math on a $10,000 investment, you’ll see very quickly that I passed up literally hundreds of thousands of dollars in that one mistake; and my worst pick ever, Satyam, from a $10,000 start we lost about $9,500.

Link to the podcast episode with the transcript


The Ten Commandments of Investment Management

I really enjoyed giving a lecture to my company Roomer

The lecture was about

The Ten Commandments of Investment Management:

  1. Thou shall not skim off the top
  2. Thou shalt not have an investment team
  3. Thou shalt accept that you shalt be wrong at least one-third of the time
  4. Thou shalt look for hidden PE of one stocks
  5. Thou shalt never use Excel
  6. Thou shalt always have a rope to climb out of the deepest well
  7. Thou shalt be singularly focused like Arjuna
  8. Thou shalt never short
  9. Thou shalt not be leveraged – Neither a lender nor a borrower be
  10. Thou shalt be a shameless cloner

You can find the video here

Cloning Buffet

Hi,

I saw this great lecture an at about after 45 minutes, Mohnish is mentoning this article by 2 professors

They back tested buying every stock Buffet bought and it reached great returns

Even buying at the latest day of the month that what Buffet is buying and buying at the highest price that day yields to 10% over the S&P

This article in CNBC covers that paper as well

My resources

I’ve decided to have all of my resources in one place by categories

  1. Books
    1. Dan Ariely books
      1. Predictably irrational
      2. The upside of irrationality
      3. Irrational yours
      4. The (honest) truth about dishonesty
    2. Daniel Kahneman book – Thinking fast and slow
    3. Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist
    4. Principles: Life and Work
  2. Podcasts
    1. The investors podcast – we study billionaires
    2. Zacks Investment Research Podcast Network
    3. Motley Fool Podcasts
  3. Videos
    1. How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
    2. Peter Lynch 1994 Lecture
  4. Movies
    1. Becoming Warren Buffett (2017)
    2. Warren Buffett: Investor. Teacher. Icon.
  5. Lectures
    1. The Ten Commandments of Investment Management

    2. The Trust vs. Truth Talk at JNV Bundi (Rajasthan) by Mohnish Pabrai on June 2, 2018
    3. Your deepest desire is your destiny (The Upanishads)
    4. Lecture at Columbia Business School: “Where have we been and where are we headed?”
    5. “Compounding is the 8th Wonder of the World” – Lecture & Q&A at Peking University – Dec. 22, 2017
    6. ​Few Bets. Big Bets. Infrequent Bets
    7. ​Intensive Stock Research Can Be Injurious to Your Financial Health
    8. The Quest for 10-100 Baggers; Peking Univ. Talk
    9. ​Spending less than you Earn – Learning from Mr. Money Mustache!
  6. Gurus
    1. Warren Buffett
    2. Mohnish Pabrai
    3. Charlie Munger
    4. Ray Dalio
    5. Peter Lynch
    6. John Bogle
  7. Blogs
    1. Chai with Pabrai
    2. The Acquirer’s Multiple
    3. Mr money mustache
    4. Hasolidit
  8. Websites
    1. Researching
      1. Morning Star
      2. Seeking Alpha
    2. Monitoring
      1. SigFig
      2. FundSeeder
  9. Strategies
    1. The ‘Free Lunch’ Portfolio
    2. Large Cap 1000
    3. Motely Fool Stock Advisor
    4. Zacks
    5. Cloning Buffett

Thinking, fast and slow

During April I read Thinking, fast and slow by Daniel Kahnman

I’ve combined a test from all of his work

Then, I’ve lectured and ask the audience to take the tests

You can answer the test and I’ll email you the explanations on each question and answers

The link to the test

לחשוב מהר, לחשוב לאט

בחודש אפריל קראתי את הספר לחשוב מהר, לחשוב לאט של דניאל כהנמן

הרכבתי שאלון שמדמה את כל הניסויים שהוא ועמיתיו ביצעו

לאחר מכן הרצתי בפני קהל שביקשתי ממנו לענות על השאלון

אתם יכולים לענות על השאלון ואשלח לכם הסבר על כל שאלה והתשובות הנפוצות

קישור לשאלון

Morningstar premium API

Hi,

I’ve build an API that retrieve morning star perimum analysis data

You can query any ticker you wish

for example

https://morningstar-api.herokuapp.com/analysisData?ticker=GE

will respond with

 

Enjoy 🙂